(Originally posted on reddit, also posted to the TL thread)

Following the extensive description of the state of Terranin HotS by TheDwf, TL collected opinions from professionals. Specifically, Snute was interested in “the correlation between Mutalisk count and win rate”. Here’s what I came to.

The data comes from approximately 2100 ZvT games from roughly April 2013 to present on Spawning Tool. The vast majority of replays are from tournament replay packs and should represent high-level play, though other games are not filtered out.

The frequency of counts tails off, and I truncated the data around 50ish since past that, there were fewer than 10 games at each point. The raw data is available here

Looking at the data myself, I’m not seeing a lot. There may be a bump around 16 Mutas, but otherwise, it’s hovering around 50% with some variance due to small sample sizes.

Let me know if there are any other analyses, graphs, or stats that you are curious about, and I will do my best to follow up with those.