Reviewing stats from Blizzcon yesterday

Unfortunately, I didn’t actually get to watch any of the WCS Grand Finals at Blizzcon yesterday. Thankfully, there are VODs (stream 1, stream 2) for me to leaf through, so I’m watching just enough of the games to evaluate my predictions. Let’s see how those turned out

SoulKey (Z) v. NaNiwa (P)

I predicted that SoulKey would play a lot of different strategies. He used a 9 Pool, Hatch first into Roach Hydra, a Pool double expand into defense, and then another 9 Pool. That’s quite varied.

Bomber (T) v. MMA (T)

I predicted just under 50% Banshee openings from both players. Bomber used Banshees in 0/4 games, and MMA used them in 4/4 games. Bomber seems to have picked up on Banshee play and opened with a lot of Ravens. I think his play has evolved.

I predicted that MMA would use a lot of Marines. I think he did, but Bomber used more. I don’t have any analysis here.

HerO (P) v sOs (P)

I predicted early game Stalkers from HerO, and he delivered. I also mentioned cheesy games, and that didn’t happen as much this time. Both of them went for earlier expansions. Unfortunately, I don’t actually understand this matchup or how it has evolved, but better defense would be my guess.

Polt (T) v. aLive (T)

I predicted that Polt would play standard and not go mech. He went bio tank, bio tank, and then won with Banshees. He didn’t go mech.

I predicted that aLive would mostly open 1/1/1. He opened 1 rax expand, 1/1/1, and 1/1/1. That is mostly 1/1/1.

Dear (P) v. TaeJa (T)

I predicted that TaeJa wins a lot in TvPs shorter than 25 minutes and loses a lot of games longer than that. Dear won in 12 minutes, Dear won in 16 minutes, TaeJa won in 24 minutes, and Dear won in 15 minutes.

I didn’t pay attention to how much TaeJa was scanning.

Jaedong (Z) v. Mvp (T)

I predicted that Jaedong would win in games shorter than 20 minutes but lose in longer games. He won in 17 minutes, 8 minutes, and 13 minutes. That seems right.

Maru (T) v. MC (P)

I predicted that Maru would mix up his openings. He opened CC first, CC first, 1 rax expand, and 1 rax expand. He didn’t 2 rax or 1/1/1, but I think the MC probably isn’t of the same caliber as WCS Korea opponents, so I’m guessing he played slightly safer.

I predicted that MC would win early, lose in the middle, and mostly win late. He lost a 21 minute game, won a 9 minute game, lost a 16 minute game, and lost a 16 minute game. I think that’s pretty consistent with the pattern.

INnoVation (T) v. duckdeok (P)

I mentioned that duckdeok plays very fast PvTs. The games were roughly 10 minutes, 9 minutes, 14 minutes, 13 minutes, and 22 minutes. Those are pretty quick games.


Overall, I think I was mostly right with those predictions. I’ll try to pump out a few more this morning before today’s games start. Those will be going up @spawningtool.

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