“How important is having a supply advantage?” continued

A week and a half ago, I slapped together some graphs about the importance of supply differences and posted it to reddit. There were a ton of very thoughtful comments from the community, some of which I riffed on to create more graphs and investigate more of the data. This post is a summary of the rest of what I found, with all data available in this spreadsheet.

Win Rates by Supply Difference

The first graph shows the global win rates and win rates in mirror matchups given certain supplies. The most direct way to use the data is to observe a game and point back to the graph at any time to figure out how much of an edge someone has. Continue reading

Explanation of win rates by supply difference

Casters use a lot of different information to make predictions and analyze the state of a game of StarCraft 2. One often used stat is supply difference: if player A has 120 supply and player B has 100 supply, we might say that player A has a 20 supply advantage. I wanted to determine how important a supply advantage is by looking a lot of data and seeing what a player’s win percentage is given a certain supply advantage.

Results and Discussion*

Win Rates by Supply Difference

You can view the original data at https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0AjlUNdJN-kiedFc5QkZxRVRoUHBWNGRCUUVjOGFmVUE&usp=sharing Continue reading